Overview
Following global events, political analysis, international relations, and the forces shaping the current moment. Not punditry or hot takes—deeper analysis of power structures, historical context, economic undercurrents, and long-term trends.
This isn't about day-to-day news consumption or political fandom. It's about understanding systems, tracking patterns, and building mental models that help make sense of complex global dynamics. The goal is informed understanding, not outrage or tribalism.
Areas of Focus
U.S. Politics & Institutions
Understanding how American political institutions actually function—not the civics-class version, but the real dynamics of power, lobbying, party strategy, legislative processes. Following the erosion of norms, the polarization of media ecosystems, the role of social media in shaping political discourse.
Key Questions
- How do political movements build power?
- What causes institutional decay?
- How does gerrymandering and voting rights affect representation?
- What's the relationship between economics and voting patterns?
- How do courts shape policy outside of legislation?
- How does money flow through politics, and what does it buy?
International Relations & Great Power Competition
The U.S.-China relationship and its implications. Russia's geopolitical strategy. The EU's internal tensions and external positioning. How alliances form, persist, and fracture. The role of international institutions (UN, WTO, NATO) in a multipolar world.
Current Focus
- U.S.-China Competition: Trade, technology, military, Taiwan, South China Sea.
- Russia's positioning: Ukraine, energy leverage, revisionist aims.
- Middle East: Iran, Israel-Palestine, Saudi Arabia, regional proxy conflicts.
- Alliance dynamics: NATO expansion, AUKUS, Quad, shifting partnerships.
- Emerging powers: India, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey—middle powers with agency.
Less interested in day-to-day diplomatic news, more interested in underlying trends: trade patterns, military buildups, alliance shifts, technology competition (semiconductors, AI, space), resource conflicts (rare earths, water, energy).
Economics & Inequality
Macroeconomic trends: inflation, interest rates, labor markets, housing, wealth concentration. Understanding how monetary policy actually works (not econ-101 versions). The financialization of everything. Debt dynamics at national and household levels.
Key Topics
- Inflation & monetary policy: Fed decisions, interest rates, quantitative easing/tightening.
- Labor markets: Wage stagnation, automation, gig economy, union power.
- Housing: Affordability crisis, zoning, financialization of housing.
- Inequality: Wealth concentration, social mobility, policy interventions.
- Trade & globalization: Supply chains, reshoring, protectionism, trade wars.
Also: income inequality, wealth inequality, and their political effects. How does inequality affect social cohesion, political stability, health outcomes, social mobility? What policy interventions actually work versus what sounds good but doesn't?
Technology & Society
How technology platforms shape information flows, political movements, and social behavior. Surveillance capitalism, data privacy, algorithmic content curation, the attention economy. Not just "tech is bad" or "tech is good"—nuanced analysis of trade-offs, externalities, and path dependencies.
Questions
- What is the appropriate role of regulation?
- How do we balance innovation with accountability?
- What happens when tech platforms have more influence than governments?
- How does social media affect democracy, truth, and collective sensemaking?
- What are the long-term effects of algorithmic content curation?
- How does AI development affect geopolitics and labor markets?
News Sources & Analysis
Prefer long-form analysis over breaking news. The news cycle is exhausting and rarely informative. Better to read monthly retrospectives, academic papers, books by domain experts, and deep-dive journalism.
Publications
- Foreign Affairs: Academic analysis of international relations. Long-form, monthly.
- The Atlantic: Specific writers (Derek Thompson, Annie Lowrey, Adam Serwer). Variable quality.
- The New Yorker: Specific writers (Evan Osnos, Adam Gopnik, Jane Mayer). Excellent long-form.
- The Economist: Weekly global news with British bias. Their biases are clear but analysis is solid.
- Bloomberg: Economics, markets, data-driven analysis. Subscription worth it for serious econ coverage.
- Financial Times: International business and economics. Pink pages, excellent reporting.
- War on the Rocks: Defense and security analysis. Practitioner perspectives.
- Foreign Policy: International relations, policy analysis.
Podcasts
- Ezra Klein Show: Policy deep-dives, excellent interviews, nuanced thinking.
- Conversations with Tyler (Tyler Cowen): Eclectic guests, wide-ranging conversations.
- Odd Lots (Bloomberg): Economics, markets, finance. Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway.
- War on the Rocks: Defense and security podcast. Complements the publication.
- The Lawfare Podcast: Legal and institutional analysis. National security focus.
- The Weeds (Vox): Policy deep-dives. Sometimes too in-the-weeds but that's the point.
Books
Prefer works that age well over timely hot takes.
Recent Reads
- The Narrow Corridor (Acemoglu & Robinson): Institutional development, state-society balance.
- The Kill Chain (Christian Brose): Military technology, great power competition, defense strategy.
- Why We're Polarized (Ezra Klein): Political psychology, identity politics, media ecosystems.
- The Power Law (Sebastian Mallaby): Venture capital, tech industry, network effects.
- Chip War (Chris Miller): Semiconductor geopolitics, supply chains, U.S.-China competition.
Want to Read
- How Democracies Die (Levitsky & Ziblatt)
- The Internationalists (Hathaway & Shapiro)
- Ages of American Capitalism (Jonathan Levy)
- The Code Breaker (Walter Isaacson) - biotech & CRISPR
Analytical Approach
Resist Narratives
Be skeptical of simple explanations. Most geopolitical events have multiple causes, constrained options, and unintended consequences. Avoid the "great man" theory of history—individuals matter, but so do structures, incentives, and path dependence.
Track Your Predictions
If you're constantly wrong about what happens next, your mental model is broken. Calibrate forecasts, update beliefs with new evidence, admit when you don't know.
I maintain a simple prediction log (spreadsheet):
- Date and prediction
- Confidence level (50%, 70%, 90%)
- Time horizon (1 month, 1 year, 5 years)
- Outcome and accuracy
- What I learned / how to improve
Current prediction accuracy: ~67% (better than random, worse than experts, room for improvement).
Beware Motivated Reasoning
It's easy to seek out analysis that confirms existing beliefs. Force yourself to read opposing perspectives, understand steelman versions of arguments you disagree with, identify areas of uncertainty.
Red-team your own beliefs. What would convince you you're wrong? If the answer is "nothing," that's a problem.
Read Primary Sources
When possible, read source documents instead of summaries:
- Congressional testimony
- Policy papers and white papers
- Academic research
- Legal decisions
- Government reports and data
Summaries introduce bias, even unintentionally. Primary sources are tedious but informative.
Understand Constraints
Leaders operate under constraints—domestic politics, institutional rules, economic realities, alliance commitments. Understanding what they can't do is as important as what they want to do.
Look for Base Rates
What usually happens in situations like this? Historical precedent isn't destiny but it's informative. Most predictions fail because they overweight the unique and underweight the typical.
Why Follow This
Understanding Forces Larger Than Yourself
The world is shaped by decisions made in capitals, boardrooms, and international institutions. Those decisions affect everything: economic opportunity, social stability, environmental policy, technological development, war and peace.
Being informed isn't enough to change outcomes, but being uninformed guarantees you'll be subject to forces you don't understand.
Pattern Recognition
Understanding history and geography helps predict what's likely to happen next. The future isn't predetermined, but it's not random either—understanding constraints helps you see possibilities.
Avoiding Tribalism
Following geopolitics through an analytical lens (not a partisan lens) helps avoid political tribalism. Understanding why people hold different views, what incentives drive actors, what tradeoffs exist—this builds nuance instead of certainty.
Intellectual Engagement
These are interesting questions. How do empires rise and fall? Why do institutions decay? How do technologies reshape society? What causes wars and what prevents them? These questions matter and they're intellectually rich.
Informed Citizenship
Democracy requires informed citizens. Not everyone needs to follow geopolitics deeply, but someone should. Better policy requires better understanding. Engagement requires knowledge.